World Cup predicitions: football(soccer) doesn't work that way

World Cup is just beginning and those like me that have published an infogrpahic with predictions for the championship are showing how far soccer is from maths. These are just some examples I've found (If you know another one, just tell me)


Click on image for interactive graphic

For this prediction I used some different data: points on the FIFA ranking, percentage of victories in the qualifying, experience in World Cups, individual trophies of their players... With all these numbers, I gave a numerical coefficient to each team. Then, I udes it to simulate the matches, mixing that coefficient with the results of previous matches between the teams and results of the latests matches of each national team. The first results showed how far were those results from the reality.
Prediction for the final: Spain will defeat Brazil in a very hard match

The Wall Street Journal

This graphic by Alberto Cervantes shows another simulation using the quality of the players, previous performances in World Cups, location (no European country has ever won the World Cup outside Europe)... They explain the method in this video

Prediction for the final: Brazil will defeat Spain


This maybe the most famous infographic about predictions for this World Cup. They have used such original data as GDP per capita or population added to experience or goal averages. They recognize GDP per capita is the most important value. Anyway, their predictions are running as badly as mines, if not worse...
Prediction for the final: Brazil will defeat Serbia

All of us think Brazil will make their way to final, two of us think the other team in Soccer City will be Spain. And just me believe Spain will win its first World Cup. I hope I'll be right...



Anonymous said...

Pretty cool world cup tracker/infographic


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josh said...

flip the semi final results and it predicted the final!

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